Economic and Climatic Determinants of the Wheat Food Gap in Libya: A Causal (2000–2023)

Abstract

This study aimed to investigate the causal direction between economic and climatic determinants and the wheat food gap in Libya during the period 2000–2023, To achieve the study objectives, the Granger Causality Test to determine the direction of causality among variables, The study reached several key findings unidirectional causal relationship runs from rainfall to the food gap, confirming the critical role of climatic factors in determining the size of the gap reverse causal relationship runs from the food gap to the general price level  which contradicts the conventional assumption. This implies that inflation in Libya is a consequence of the widening food gap rather than its cause. The study concluded with several recommendations, most notably: promoting supplementary irrigation and rainwater harvesting to address climatic causality, improving productivity rather than horizontal expansion, diversifying wheat import sources and building a strategic reserve.