Temporal Trends and Changes in Seasonal and Annual Temperatures at the Ajdabiya Station (1959–2024) and Their Significance for Climate Change Studies

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the temporal trends of annual and seasonal temperatures at Ajdabiya Station during the period 1959–2024, and to identify the pattern of thermal variability among seasons and the statistical significance of the observed trends. The study employed time-series analysis and estimated linear trends and rates of change, in addition to statistical tests of trend significance and differences between means.

The results showed that the annual mean temperature was 20.61°C, with a weak positive trend of 0.004°C/year, which was not statistically significant at the 0.05 level (p = 0.070). The difference between the mean temperatures of the two periods under comparison was also not statistically significant (p = 0.242). At the seasonal scale, winter recorded the highest positive trend, at 0.34°C/decade, followed by autumn at 0.20°C/decade; both trends were statistically significant at p < 0.001. In contrast, spring exhibited a negative trend of -0.28°C/decade, which was statistically significant (p < 0.001), whereas summer showed a weak negative trend of -0.08°C/decade, with no statistical significance (p = 0.111).

The findings indicate a clear seasonal variability in temperature trends at Ajdabiya Station, characterized by positive trends during winter and autumn, a negative trend during spring, and no statistically significant trend during summer. These results highlight the importance of integrating annual and seasonal analyses when characterizing temperature changes, while the use of additional climatic indicators is recommended to investigate the factors associated with the observed seasonal variability.